Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints39
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points20
- Jake LaRaviaAssists8
- Santi AldamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–131
- Q421.2Santi Aldama defensive rebound114–131
- Q424.1Bronny James misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot114–131
- Q433.2Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 2 of 2114–131
- Q433.2Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 1 of 2114–130
- Q433.2Bronny James personal foul114–129
- Q452.0Bronny James makes free throw 2 of 2114–129
- Q452.0Bronny James makes free throw 1 of 2113–129
- Q452.0Colin Castleton shooting foul112–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:28Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)LAL 44 – 49 MEM · MEM 63% → 71% +7MEM 63% → 71%+7 pts
- Q310:43Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumperLAL 57 – 62 MEM · MEM 63% → 71% +8MEM 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:01LeBron James makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)LAL 63 – 68 MEM · LAL 21% → 29% +7LAL 21% → 29%+7 pts
- Q37:29D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 68 – 72 MEM · LAL 23% → 31% +8LAL 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q36:57Jay Huff makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)LAL 68 – 75 MEM · MEM 69% → 77% +8MEM 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML LAL +140 / MEM -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MEM: Elo 57.5%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -151
- LAL +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 114.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | +32 | LAL: Missing Anthony Davis −90, Rui Hachimura −8 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +53 Elo | MEM 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 117.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 115.018th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +2.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 104.06th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−79 Elo- Anthony Davis left heel bruise−90 Elo
- Rui Hachimura illness−8 Elo
Grizzlies
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 3–1 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.