Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jared McCainPoints18
- Paul GeorgeAssists8
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints31
- LeBron JamesAssists13
- LeBron JamesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–116
- Q48.1Adem Bona makes free throw 1 of 1106–116
- Q48.1Christian Koloko shooting foul105–116
- Q48.1Adem Bona makes two point shot (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)105–116
- Q418.0Lester Quinones defensive rebound103–116
- Q420.1Max Christie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–116
- Q443.1Lester Quinones makes free throw 1 of 1103–116
- Q443.1Maxwell Lewis shooting foul102–116
- Q443.1Lester Quinones makes tip shot102–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:24Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHI 46 – 50 LAL · LAL 69% → 75% +7LAL 69% → 75%+7 pts
- Q25:01Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three pointer (Cam Reddish assists)PHI 48 – 53 LAL · LAL 71% → 77% +7LAL 71% → 77%+7 pts
- Q22:07Anthony Davis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)PHI 59 – 60 LAL · LAL 60% → 68% +8LAL 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q225.0Austin Reaves makes 25-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)PHI 60 – 68 LAL · LAL 77% → 83% +6LAL 77% → 83%+6 pts
- Q310:57Austin Reaves makes 28-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)PHI 64 – 71 LAL · LAL 75% → 81% +7LAL 75% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML PHI +220 / LAL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5.5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 70.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- LAL -234
- PHI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 108.5 – 116.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −79 | −3 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −117 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +151 Elo | LAL 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.1 | Points scored | 115.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 120.025th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.6 | Margin | −4.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 115.826th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 103.76th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−79 Elo- Joel Embiid suspended by league−117 Elo
Lakers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.