Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints40
- Tyler HerroAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game121–123
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime121–123
- OT0.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 2 of 2121–123
- OT0.0Pistons offensive team rebound121–122
- OT0.0Malik Beasley misses free throw 1 of 2121–122
- OT0.0Haywood Highsmith personal take foul121–122
- OT1.0excess timeout turnover121–122
- OT1.0Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Kevin Love121–122
- OT1.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith121–122
- OT1.0Kevin Love enters the game for Pelle Larsson121–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q432.0Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point shot (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 111 – 111 DET · MIA 7% → 50% +43MIA 7% → 50%+43 pts
- OT40.2Malik Beasley makes 28-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)MIA 119 – 119 DET · DET 9% → 50% +41DET 9% → 50%+41 pts
- OT1.1Tyler Herro makes 6-foot two point shotMIA 121 – 119 DET · MIA 50% → >99% +50MIA 50% → >99%+50 pts
- OT1.0Jalen Duren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 121 – 121 DET · DET <1% → 50% +50DET <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1.0Malik Beasley makes technical free throwMIA 121 – 122 DET · DET 50% → >99% +50DET 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.6% of 341 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -1.5
- ML MIA -120 / DET +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- MIA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.0 – 106.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +19 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −33 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +15 Elo | DET 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.0 | Points scored | 107.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 109.68th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 107.226th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 109.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−39 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right ankle sprain−33 Elo
Pistons
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–0 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.