Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints24
- Tyler HerroAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints30
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–135
- Q43.1shot clock turnover122–135
- Q427.2Haywood Highsmith makes 5-foot two point shot (Terry Rozier assists)122–135
- Q435.1Christian Braun makes dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)120–135
- Q438.0Duncan Robinson bad pass (Nikola Jokic steals)120–133
- Q448.0Julian Strawther makes 2-foot two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)120–133
- Q458.0Nuggets Full timeout120–131
- Q458.0Julian Strawther enters the game for Peyton Watson120–131
- Q458.0Nuggets Full timeout120–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:27Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 42 – 44 DEN · MIA 31% → 38% +7MIA 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q27:02Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 45 – 46 DEN · MIA 33% → 41% +7MIA 33% → 41%+7 pts
- Q21:41Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Richardson assists)MIA 58 – 62 DEN · MIA 26% → 33% +7MIA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q21:18Christian Braun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)MIA 58 – 65 DEN · DEN 67% → 74% +7DEN 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q232.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)MIA 60 – 68 DEN · DEN 70% → 77% +7DEN 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML MIA +130 / DEN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- DEN: Elo 56.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.0 – 112.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | −24 | MIA: Missing Kevin Love −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +46 Elo | DEN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.1 | Points scored | 119.05th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 117.322nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 111.315th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 102.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+14 Elo- Kevin Love return to competition reconditioning−3 Elo
Nuggets
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 DEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.