Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–115
- Q44.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith112–115
- Q44.1Grayson Allen enters the game for Tyus Jones112–115
- Q44.1Heat Full timeout112–115
- Q44.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2112–115
- Q44.1Suns offensive team rebound112–114
- Q44.1Devin Booker misses free throw 1 of 2112–114
- Q44.1Jimmy Butler personal foul112–114
- Q47.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson112–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:03Grayson Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)MIA 92 – 93 PHX · PHX 46% → 61% +15PHX 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q47:04Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)MIA 94 – 98 PHX · PHX 61% → 75% +14PHX 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q46:37Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 97 – 98 PHX · MIA 24% → 39% +15MIA 24% → 39%+15 pts
- Q46:11Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MIA 97 – 101 PHX · PHX 61% → 76% +15PHX 61% → 76%+15 pts
- Q43:52Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MIA 103 – 106 PHX · PHX 54% → 74% +20PHX 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML MIA +165 / PHX -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- PHX: Elo 59.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −9 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +67 Elo | PHX 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.7 | Points scored | 114.411th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 110.713th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +3.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 108.79th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.6 | Pace | 100.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.