Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Nikola JovicRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints22
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–94
- Q40.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound95–94
- Q42.1Mike Conley misses 22-foot three point jumper95–94
- Q43.1Tyler Herro personal foul95–94
- Q47.1Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert95–94
- Q47.1Timberwolves Full timeout95–94
- Q47.1Nikola Jovic makes free throw 1 of 195–94
- Q47.1Bam Adebayo enters the game for Duncan Robinson94–94
- Q47.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Kevin Love94–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:06Julius Randle makes two point shotMIA 89 – 92 MIN · MIN 67% → 87% +20MIN 67% → 87%+20 pts
- Q430.0Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 92 – 92 MIN · MIA 28% → 48% +19MIA 28% → 48%+19 pts
- Q49.0Jaden McDaniels makes tip shotMIA 92 – 94 MIN · MIN 51% → 97% +46MIN 51% → 97%+46 pts
- Q47.1Nikola Jovic makes layup (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 94 – 94 MIN · MIA 2% → 49% +47MIA 2% → 49%+47 pts
- Q47.1Nikola Jovic makes free throw 1 of 1MIA 95 – 94 MIN · MIA 49% → 85% +36MIA 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML MIA +240 / MIN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 73.4%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -253
- MIA +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 106.0 – 113.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | −2 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −33 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +176 Elo | MIN 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 116.010th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 109.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 115.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 109.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 16th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 4–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−39 Elo- Jimmy Butler III sprained right ankle−33 Elo
Timberwolves
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.