Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints16
- Scoot HendersonAssists3
- Deandre AytonRebounds6
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–127
- Q419.1Rayan Rupert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kris Murray assists)102–127
- Q421.1Kris Murray offensive rebound99–127
- Q425.1Dalano Banton misses 14-foot step back jumpshot99–127
- Q432.1Rob Dillingham traveling99–127
- Q435.0Rob Dillingham defensive rebound99–127
- Q438.1Terrence Shannon Jr. blocks Dalano Banton's two point shot99–127
- Q443.0Jabari Walker defensive rebound99–127
- Q444.1Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 199–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:58Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)POR 0 – 8 MIN · MIN 89% → 92% +3MIN 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q14:36Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 6 – 15 MIN · MIN 90% → 92% +3MIN 90% → 92%+3 pts
- Q13:58Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)POR 7 – 18 MIN · MIN 91% → 94% +2MIN 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q21:30Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)POR 48 – 61 MIN · MIN 93% → 95% +3MIN 93% → 95%+3 pts
- Q39:13Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)POR 55 – 69 MIN · MIN 94% → 96% +2MIN 94% → 96%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -12.5
- ML POR +500 / MIN -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 77.4%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -533
- POR +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.0 – 116.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −13 | −4 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +214 Elo | MIN 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 82.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 114.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 110.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +3.810th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 115.45th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.7 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | — | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–4 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.