Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints21
- Anfernee SimonsAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints17
- Blake WesleyAssists8
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–118
- Q43.1shot clock turnover105–118
- Q426.1Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound105–118
- Q428.1Dalano Banton misses free throw 2 of 2105–118
- Q428.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound105–118
- Q428.1Dalano Banton misses free throw 1 of 2105–118
- Q428.1Blake Wesley enters the game for Julian Champagnie105–118
- Q428.1Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Chris Paul105–118
- Q428.1Charles Bassey enters the game for Victor Wembanyama105–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:32Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)POR 59 – 62 SA · SA 57% → 66% +9SA 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q36:41Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 65 – 68 SA · POR 25% → 34% +9POR 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q36:05Keldon Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)POR 65 – 71 SA · SA 66% → 75% +9SA 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q49:08Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point shot (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 88 – 93 SA · POR 14% → 24% +10POR 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q48:38Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)POR 88 – 96 SA · SA 77% → 86% +10SA 77% → 86%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML POR +145 / SA -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SA: Elo 56.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -156
- POR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.5 – 111.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | +7 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +42 Elo | SA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 104.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 108.56th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.9 | Margin | −4.119th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 105.728th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.911th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.5 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–2 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.