Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists5
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints27
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–100
- Q46.1shot clock turnover118–100
- Q428.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound118–100
- Q431.0Jamal Cain misses 26-foot three point jumper118–100
- Q439.0Dalano Banton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–100
- Q41:01Jaylen Nowell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trey Jemison assists)115–100
- Q41:03Trey Jemison offensive rebound115–97
- Q41:05Jaylen Nowell misses 9-foot pullup jump shot115–97
- Q41:22Donovan Clingan makes free throw 2 of 2115–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:06Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)POR 74 – 75 NO · POR 35% → 46% +11POR 35% → 46%+11 pts
- Q313.0Jose Alvarado makes 24-foot three pointerPOR 76 – 82 NO · NO 62% → 73% +11NO 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q30.1Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 79 – 82 NO · POR 27% → 38% +11POR 27% → 38%+11 pts
- Q410:43Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 84 – 84 NO · POR 37% → 50% +13POR 37% → 50%+13 pts
- Q410:09Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 84 – 87 NO · NO 50% → 63% +13NO 50% → 63%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NO -1.5
- ML POR -110 / NO -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -0.5
- NO 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NO: Elo 47.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NO -100
- POR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.0 – 109.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | −127 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | POR +18 Elo | POR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 58.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 108.922nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 115.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −7.025th of 30 |
| 28th of 30103.9 | Offense rating | 107.722nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−127 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.