Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Mike ConleyAssists11
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints25
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Josh GiddeyRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–119
- Q422.0Dalen Terry makes two point shot135–119
- Q431.1Terrence Shannon Jr. makes 1-foot dunk135–117
- Q431.1Matas Buzelis lost ball turnover (Terrence Shannon Jr. steals)133–117
- Q435.0Matas Buzelis defensive rebound133–117
- Q435.0Matas Buzelis blocks Luka Garza's two point shot133–117
- Q435.0Luka Garza offensive rebound133–117
- Q438.0Luka Garza misses driving layup133–117
- Q458.0Matas Buzelis makes layup (Jevon Carter assists)133–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:33Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 90 – 93 CHI · MIN 42% → 54% +12MIN 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q411:46Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)MIN 93 – 95 CHI · MIN 44% → 56% +13MIN 44% → 56%+13 pts
- Q410:42Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three pointer (Mike Conley assists)MIN 98 – 101 CHI · MIN 38% → 51% +13MIN 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q49:06Talen Horton-Tucker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)MIN 101 – 106 CHI · CHI 47% → 61% +14CHI 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q46:22Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 110 – 106 CHI · MIN 66% → 80% +14MIN 66% → 80%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML MIN -425 / CHI +320
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 68.8%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 118.0 – 108.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −34 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +137 Elo | MIN 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 113.018th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 119.424th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −6.424th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 105.827th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.4 | Pace | 106.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.