Chicago Bulls at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints14
- Josh GiddeyAssists6
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints27
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–119
- Q415.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes driving layup99–119
- Q423.1Jazian Gortman makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandon Williams assists)97–119
- Q438.1Chris Duarte makes free throw 2 of 297–116
- Q438.1Chris Duarte makes free throw 1 of 296–116
- Q438.1Kessler Edwards shooting foul95–116
- Q445.2Chris Duarte defensive rebound95–116
- Q449.1Kessler Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot95–116
- Q455.1Brandon Williams defensive rebound95–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:40Patrick Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 5 – 3 DAL · CHI 20% → 25% +5CHI 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q17:45Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)CHI 9 – 12 DAL · DAL 78% → 83% +5DAL 78% → 83%+5 pts
- Q17:11Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)CHI 9 – 15 DAL · DAL 83% → 86% +4DAL 83% → 86%+4 pts
- Q11:54Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point shot (Coby White assists)CHI 24 – 27 DAL · CHI 14% → 18% +4CHI 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q145.0Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)CHI 24 – 30 DAL · DAL 81% → 86% +4DAL 81% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -10.5
- ML CHI +360 / DAL -475
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 73.6%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -380
- CHI +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.0 – 123.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +6 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +178 Elo | DAL 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 78.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 112.718th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 109.48th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.4 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 108.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.9 | Pace | 101.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.