Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints30
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Myles TurnerRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–127
- Q49.0Kyrie Irving makes 1-foot two point shot134–127
- Q416.1Bennedict Mathurin makes 1-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)134–125
- Q435.0Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound132–125
- Q440.1Luka Doncic misses 14-foot two point shot132–125
- Q450.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 16-foot pullup jump shot132–125
- Q41:03Pacers Full timeout130–125
- Q41:03P.J. Washington makes driving layup (Luka Doncic assists)130–125
- Q41:09P.J. Washington defensive rebound130–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q337.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)IND 94 – 95 DAL · DAL 48% → 60% +12DAL 48% → 60%+12 pts
- Q49:42Kyrie Irving makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)IND 102 – 102 DAL · DAL 41% → 55% +14DAL 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q47:44Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)IND 110 – 109 DAL · DAL 34% → 49% +15DAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q45:47Spencer Dinwiddie makes 4-foot two point shotIND 116 – 116 DAL · DAL 42% → 54% +12DAL 42% → 54%+12 pts
- Q45:37Andrew Nembhard makes 2-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 118 – 116 DAL · IND 46% → 58% +12IND 46% → 58%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML IND +150 / DAL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -159
- IND +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 120.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −11 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Dereck Lively II −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +75 Elo | DAL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 110.321st of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 105.34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.2 | Margin | +5.05th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.216th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 105.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−11 Elo- Dereck Lively II right shoulder sprain−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.