Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints25
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds12
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints29
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–94
- Q42.0Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound90–94
- Q42.0Tyrese Haliburton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot90–94
- Q49.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 290–94
- Q49.1Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 290–93
- Q49.1Pascal Siakam personal foul90–92
- Q411.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 3-foot dunk (Jarace Walker assists)90–92
- Q413.1Jarace Walker defensive rebound88–92
- Q415.0Franz Wagner misses driving layup88–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:34Moritz Wagner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)IND 61 – 62 ORL · ORL 43% → 54% +11ORL 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q32:16Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Obi Toppin assists)IND 68 – 66 ORL · IND 46% → 57% +11IND 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q410:05Jonathan Isaac makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jett Howard assists)IND 72 – 73 ORL · ORL 41% → 55% +14ORL 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q49:08Moritz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)IND 72 – 78 ORL · ORL 64% → 77% +12ORL 64% → 77%+12 pts
- Q47:26Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 75 – 81 ORL · IND 11% → 21% +10IND 11% → 21%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML IND -105 / ORL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -0.5
- ORL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -104
- IND +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.5 – 113.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −29 | IND: Usual rotation · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +21 Elo | IND 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 108.522nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 104.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +3.78th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 107.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 104.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–3 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.