New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon Boston Jr.Points26
- Jose AlvaradoAssists5
- Brandon Boston Jr.Rebounds6
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints27
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–115
- Q49.1shot clock turnover88–115
- Q433.1Caleb Houstan defensive rebound88–115
- Q435.1Antonio Reeves misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot88–115
- Q441.1Jamal Cain defensive rebound88–115
- Q445.1Cory Joseph misses 27-foot three point jumper88–115
- Q451.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound88–115
- Q454.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses driving layup88–115
- Q41:09Cory Joseph makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)88–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:28Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)NO 51 – 57 ORL · NO 13% → 18% +5NO 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q38:50Brandon Boston Jr. makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 53 – 59 ORL · NO 14% → 18% +4NO 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q38:36Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)NO 53 – 62 ORL · ORL 82% → 87% +6ORL 82% → 87%+6 pts
- Q33:36Jose Alvarado makes 27-foot three pointerNO 66 – 71 ORL · NO 13% → 20% +7NO 13% → 20%+7 pts
- Q33:13Moritz Wagner makes 3-foot layup (Franz Wagner assists)NO 66 – 73 ORL · ORL 80% → 85% +5ORL 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML NO +275 / ORL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5
- ORL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 68.9%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -292
- NO +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 101.5 – 109.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −123 | −58 | NO: Missing Zion Williamson −56 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +138 Elo | ORL 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.3 | Points scored | 105.829th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 109.79th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | −3.920th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 104.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 108.36th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 101.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−123 Elo- Zion Williamson left hamstring−56 Elo
Magic
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.