Cleveland Cavaliers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints29
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Jose AlvaradoAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–122
- Q44.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound131–122
- Q46.1Jose Alvarado misses 15-foot pullup jump shot131–122
- Q410.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2131–122
- Q410.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2130–122
- Q410.1Jose Alvarado personal take foul129–122
- Q422.1Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)129–122
- Q428.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1129–119
- Q428.1Brandon Boston Jr. shooting foul128–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:43Ty Jerome makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 42 – 48 NO · CLE 42% → 50% +8CLE 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q23:36Ty Jerome makes 30-foot three point shot (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 51 – 50 NO · CLE 60% → 68% +8CLE 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q21:56Jordan Hawkins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)CLE 55 – 57 NO · NO 33% → 41% +8NO 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q46:58Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 109 – 100 NO · CLE 84% → 92% +8CLE 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q45:42Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCLE 112 – 106 NO · NO 6% → 14% +8NO 6% → 14%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -260 / NO +215
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.4%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -227
- NO +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.5 – 109.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −86 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +168 Elo | CLE 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.3 | Points scored | 107.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 116.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+13.1 | Margin | −8.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 107.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 115.926th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–1 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.