Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints28
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds12
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints20
- T.J. McConnellAssists5
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–118
- Q410.0Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Ben Sheppard111–118
- Q410.0Jalen Suggs out of bounds bad pass turnover111–118
- Q414.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q414.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton111–117
- Q414.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2111–117
- Q414.1Franz Wagner personal take foul111–116
- Q416.1Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Goga Bitadze111–116
- Q416.1Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Ben Sheppard111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:26Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)ORL 87 – 90 IND · IND 57% → 69% +12IND 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q47:28Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 97 – 101 IND · IND 61% → 75% +14IND 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q46:55Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)ORL 99 – 104 IND · IND 66% → 80% +13IND 66% → 80%+13 pts
- Q443.0Franz Wagner makes 2-foot layup (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 111 – 113 IND · ORL 4% → 18% +14ORL 4% → 18%+14 pts
- Q433.2Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerORL 111 – 116 IND · IND 84% → >99% +15IND 84% → >99%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML ORL +175 / IND -210
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- IND: Elo 65.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -186
- ORL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.5 – 116.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −62 | −3 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +113 Elo | IND 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.1 | Points scored | 118.45th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 121.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −3.419th of 30 |
| 29th of 30103.2 | Offense rating | 113.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 116.328th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.615th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–1 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.