Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints35
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints32
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–114
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound89–114
- Q40.0Cory Joseph misses 57-foot three point jumper89–114
- Q42.1Vasilije Micic makes free throw 2 of 289–114
- Q42.1Vasilije Micic makes free throw 1 of 288–114
- Q42.1Cole Anthony personal foul87–114
- Q45.0Moussa Diabate defensive rebound87–114
- Q47.2Trevelin Queen misses driving layup87–114
- Q414.0Caleb Houstan defensive rebound87–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:23LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CHA 8 – 3 ORL · CHA 31% → 36% +6CHA 31% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:24Cody Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)CHA 27 – 26 ORL · CHA 25% → 31% +6CHA 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q310:07LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 55 – 60 ORL · CHA 15% → 21% +6CHA 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q39:21Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)CHA 55 – 63 ORL · ORL 79% → 85% +6ORL 79% → 85%+6 pts
- Q35:52Cody Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 62 – 68 ORL · CHA 13% → 19% +6CHA 13% → 19%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML CHA +260 / ORL -320
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.1%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -274
- CHA +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 102.0 – 110.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −39 | CHA: Usual rotation · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +101 Elo | ORL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30109.5 | Points scored | 108.023rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 106.32nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.0 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 107.524th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 105.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.1 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 2–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.