Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints31
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–103
- Q44.2Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound83–103
- Q48.1James Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper83–103
- Q423.0Johnny Furphy defensive rebound83–103
- Q425.0Jared Rhoden misses driving floating jump shot83–103
- Q439.0Jared Rhoden defensive rebound83–103
- Q441.0Johnny Furphy misses 23-foot three point jumper83–103
- Q41:01Quenton Jackson defensive rebound83–103
- Q41:03Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper83–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q336.1Brandon Miller makes 29-foot three point jumperIND 66 – 74 CHA · CHA 59% → 71% +11CHA 59% → 71%+11 pts
- Q411:24Quenton Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 69 – 74 CHA · IND 28% → 39% +12IND 28% → 39%+12 pts
- Q46:28LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)IND 79 – 85 CHA · CHA 59% → 74% +15CHA 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q46:08Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup (Quenton Jackson assists)IND 81 – 85 CHA · IND 25% → 35% +10IND 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q45:43Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)IND 81 – 88 CHA · CHA 66% → 81% +15CHA 66% → 81%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML IND -275 / CHA +220
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- IND: Elo 63.1%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -235
- CHA +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.0 – 114.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −7 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +93 Elo | IND 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 110.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 116.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 109.620th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 15th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.