Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints38
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
76ers- Jared McCainPoints27
- Paul GeorgeAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game105–107
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime105–107
- OT0.176ers defensive team rebound105–107
- OT0.1Grant Williams misses free throw 2 of 2105–107
- OT0.1Moussa Diabate enters the game for Seth Curry105–107
- OT0.1Andre Drummond enters the game for Jared McCain105–107
- OT0.1Grant Williams makes free throw 1 of 2105–107
- OT0.1Guerschon Yabusele personal foul104–107
- OT2.0Caleb Martin makes free throw 2 of 2104–107
- OT2.0Caleb Martin makes free throw 1 of 2104–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:10Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)CHA 89 – 91 PHI · PHI 43% → 71% +28PHI 43% → 71%+28 pts
- Q41:34Caleb Martin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)CHA 89 – 94 PHI · PHI 74% → 93% +20PHI 74% → 93%+20 pts
- Q48.0LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point shot (Cody Martin assists)CHA 97 – 97 PHI · CHA <1% → 49% +49CHA <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1:49LaMelo Ball makes driving layupCHA 101 – 101 PHI · CHA 27% → 47% +20CHA 27% → 47%+20 pts
- OT1:26Jared McCain makes 2-foot two point shotCHA 102 – 103 PHI · PHI 40% → 64% +24PHI 40% → 64%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML CHA +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- PHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 44.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- CHA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.0 – 108.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −78 | CHA: Usual rotation · PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −116 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | PHI crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +38 Elo | CHA 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.0 | Points scored | 107.028th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.1 | Margin | −8.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 107.226th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 16th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−78 Elo- Joel Embiid suspended by league−116 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–4 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.