Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Bilal CoulibalyAssists6
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds7
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Franz WagnerAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–121
- Q43.0shot clock turnover94–121
- Q427.0Johnny Davis makes driving layup (Anthony Gill assists)94–121
- Q430.1Anthony Gill offensive rebound92–121
- Q433.1Johnny Davis misses 6-foot two point shot92–121
- Q447.2Jett Howard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)92–121
- Q456.0Magic defensive team rebound92–118
- Q458.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper92–118
- Q41:16Tristan da Silva turnover92–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:38Alexandre Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 15 – 12 ORL · WSH 19% → 24% +5WSH 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q12:43Moritz Wagner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)WSH 20 – 21 ORL · ORL 77% → 82% +5ORL 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q29:47Jordan Poole makes 29-foot three pointerWSH 31 – 29 ORL · WSH 20% → 25% +6WSH 20% → 25%+6 pts
- Q28:51Anthony Black makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotWSH 32 – 34 ORL · ORL 76% → 82% +5ORL 76% → 82%+5 pts
- Q310:07Bilal Coulibaly makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 60 – 65 ORL · WSH 10% → 15% +5WSH 10% → 15%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -11.5
- ML WSH +450 / ORL -700
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 74.0%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -481
- WSH +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 105.5 – 117.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −50 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +182 Elo | ORL 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 79.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 106.728th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 107.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.6 | Margin | −0.814th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 105.628th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 106.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Pace | 101.114th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.