Washington Wizards at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints17
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Bub CarringtonRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points39
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists11
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–128
- Q40.0Colin Castleton defensive rebound104–128
- Q40.0Jay Huff blocks Jared Butler 's 9-foot driving floating jump shot104–128
- Q414.1shot clock turnover104–128
- Q435.1Richaun Holmes makes tip shot104–128
- Q435.1Richaun Holmes offensive rebound102–128
- Q439.1Johnny Davis misses driving floating jump shot102–128
- Q446.1Johnny Davis offensive rebound102–128
- Q449.1Richaun Holmes misses 22-foot three point shot102–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:08Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot dunk (Alexandre Sarr assists)WSH 6 – 4 MEM · WSH 29% → 32% +4WSH 29% → 32%+4 pts
- Q19:39Santi Aldama makes two point shotWSH 6 – 6 MEM · MEM 68% → 71% +4MEM 68% → 71%+4 pts
- Q18:48Jaren Jackson Jr. makes tip shotWSH 8 – 8 MEM · MEM 67% → 71% +4MEM 67% → 71%+4 pts
- Q18:34Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)WSH 8 – 11 MEM · MEM 71% → 76% +5MEM 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q15:11Jake LaRavia makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)WSH 14 – 21 MEM · MEM 78% → 82% +5MEM 78% → 82%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML WSH +240 / MEM -300
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 67.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MEM -255
- WSH +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 119.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −4 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +128 Elo | MEM 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 114.919th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 113.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 110.211th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.9 | Pace | 104.35th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | — | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.