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New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-2

Away

Knicks

4-5

121–132

at

Home

Pacers

5-5

NY 58%IND 42%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN IN, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored NY favored134 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game121–132
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–132
  • Q42.1shot clock turnover121–132
  • Q423.1Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound121–132
  • Q428.1Mikal Bridges misses 22-foot three point jumper121–132
  • Q432.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2121–132
  • Q432.0Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 2121–131
  • Q432.0Jalen Brunson personal foul121–130
  • Q443.2Josh Hart makes layup (Jalen Brunson assists)121–130
  • Q453.1Mikal Bridges defensive rebound119–130

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q34:04Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quenton Jackson assists)NY 81 – 83 IND · IND 42% → 52% +11
  2. Q410:15Pascal Siakam makes 24-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)NY 94 – 97 IND · IND 46% → 60% +13
  3. Q49:39Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 96 – 100 IND · IND 51% → 64% +14
  4. Q45:24Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 105 – 111 IND · IND 65% → 81% +15
  5. Q44:52Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)NY 107 – 114 IND · IND 72% → 86% +14

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 58%

LeanMiss
NY 58%IND 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
NY -3.5
ML NY -155 / IND +130
Pre-line forecast
NY 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -1
NY 55%
Ratings vs. market
−3.7 pts
NY: Elo 54.6%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
NY -140
IND +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 116.5 – 113.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 229.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYINDWhy
Team rating15541504Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+14−5NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Obi Toppin −3 (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +32 EloNY 54.6%
Market-implied ratingsNY 54.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 54.4%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatIND
15th of 30113.6Points scored114.413th of 30
6th of 30108.6Points allowed118.625th of 30
7th of 30+5.0Margin−4.121st of 30
2nd of 30118.1Offense rating111.213th of 30
18th of 30112.9Defense rating115.225th of 30
30th of 3096.2Pace100.419th of 30
15th of 302–3Road vs home2–18th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+14 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

−5 Elo
  • Obi Toppin left ankle sprain−3 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPacers
130014001500160017001800league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYIND
Against the spread4–45–4
Last 104–45–4
Favorite4–32–3
Underdog0–13–1
Overs–unders4–46–3
Overs–unders, last 104–46–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 5–6 IND in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.