Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints28
- Tyler HerroAssists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints34
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–119
- Q49.0Obi Toppin defensive rebound110–119
- Q412.0Josh Richardson misses 29-foot three point jumper110–119
- Q418.1Myles Turner makes 1-foot dunk (T.J. McConnell assists)110–119
- Q426.1Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound110–117
- Q429.1Tyrese Haliburton blocks Duncan Robinson 's 21-foot pullup jump shot110–117
- Q433.1Josh Richardson offensive rebound110–117
- Q437.1Bam Adebayo misses 26-foot three point jumper110–117
- Q443.0T.J. McConnell makes driving layup110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:31Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Richardson assists)MIA 92 – 95 IND · MIA 19% → 31% +12MIA 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q45:37Duncan Robinson makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 97 – 97 IND · MIA 29% → 47% +17MIA 29% → 47%+17 pts
- Q45:10Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)MIA 97 – 100 IND · IND 53% → 71% +18IND 53% → 71%+18 pts
- Q44:38Tyrese Haliburton makes 28-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)MIA 97 – 103 IND · IND 72% → 86% +14IND 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q42:58Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIA 101 – 108 IND · IND 82% → 94% +12IND 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML MIA +140 / IND -165
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- IND: Elo 54.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.0 – 115.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −14 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −33 · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +31 Elo | IND 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 113.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 117.225th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −3.621st of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 111.115th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 100.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−30 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right ankle sprain−33 Elo
Pacers
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–2 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.