Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Bam AdebayoAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints21
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Jarace WalkerRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–111
- Q41.0Heat offensive team rebound124–111
- Q41.0Kel'el Ware misses 27-foot jump bank shot124–111
- Q49.1Obi Toppin makes free throw 2 of 2124–111
- Q49.1Kel'el Ware enters the game for Tyler Herro124–110
- Q49.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Bam Adebayo124–110
- Q49.1Obi Toppin makes free throw 1 of 2124–110
- Q49.1Bam Adebayo shooting foul124–109
- Q415.1Johnny Furphy defensive rebound124–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:29Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)MIA 57 – 50 IND · IND 32% → 40% +8IND 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q22:26Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIA 58 – 53 IND · IND 37% → 45% +8IND 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q22:01Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumperMIA 61 – 53 IND · MIA 55% → 64% +8MIA 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q310:01Kevin Love makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 66 – 57 IND · MIA 60% → 69% +9MIA 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q39:05Kevin Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 71 – 59 IND · MIA 70% → 77% +8MIA 70% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML MIA +150 / IND -180
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3
- IND 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- IND: Elo 61.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- IND -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.0 – 116.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −36 | −2 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −33 · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +81 Elo | IND 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 113.814th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 116.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.720th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 111.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−36 Elo- Jimmy Butler III right ankle sprain−33 Elo
Pacers
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.