Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints35
- RJ BarrettAssists15
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints27
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game123–126
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime123–126
- OT0.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)123–126
- OT0.0Jayson Tatum makes 29-foot three pointer123–126
- OT20.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Neemias Queta123–123
- OT20.0Celtics Full timeout123–123
- OT20.0Neemias Queta defensive rebound123–123
- OT22.0Neemias Queta blocks RJ Barrett 's 9-foot driving layup123–123
- OT33.1Raptors Full timeout123–123
- OT33.1(00:33.6) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Raptors] retain their timeout123–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:45Al Horford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)TOR 110 – 112 BOS · BOS 49% → 79% +30BOS 49% → 79%+30 pts
- Q459.0RJ Barrett makes 5-foot two point shotTOR 114 – 112 BOS · TOR 43% → 71% +28TOR 43% → 71%+28 pts
- Q442.1Neemias Queta makes 4-foot layup (Jaylen Brown assists)TOR 114 – 114 BOS · BOS 24% → 56% +32BOS 24% → 56%+32 pts
- OT1:09Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)TOR 121 – 123 BOS · BOS 45% → 81% +36BOS 45% → 81%+36 pts
- OT0.0Jayson Tatum makes 29-foot three pointerTOR 123 – 126 BOS · BOS 66% → 100% +34BOS 66% → 100%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -16.5
- ML TOR +900 / BOS -1650
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -14.5
- BOS 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 91.4%, market 90.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -943
- TOR +943 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 107.0 – 123.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | +21 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +411 Elo | BOS 91.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 93.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 93.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 90.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.4 | Points scored | 121.33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 110.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +10.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 108.26th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 100.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–7 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−36 Elo- Immanuel Quickley not with team−20 Elo
Celtics
+21 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis injured−22 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.