Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints28
- Jalen JohnsonAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds12
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints37
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Derrick WhiteRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–116
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound117–116
- Q40.0Jaylen Brown misses 13-foot pullup jump shot117–116
- Q43.1Dyson Daniels out of bounds bad pass turnover117–116
- Q44.1Hawks Full timeout117–116
- Q44.1Jrue Holiday out of bounds bad pass turnover117–116
- Q45.0Celtics Full timeout117–116
- Q45.0Dyson Daniels personal foul117–116
- Q46.0Celtics Full timeout117–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:57Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)ATL 108 – 111 BOS · BOS 60% → 85% +25BOS 60% → 85%+25 pts
- Q41:24Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three pointerATL 110 – 114 BOS · BOS 70% → 92% +23BOS 70% → 92%+23 pts
- Q41:09Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 113 – 114 BOS · ATL 6% → 30% +24ATL 6% → 30%+24 pts
- Q442.1Keaton Wallace makes 13-foot driving floating jump shotATL 115 – 116 BOS · ATL 7% → 28% +21ATL 7% → 28%+21 pts
- Q46.0Onyeka Okongwu makes tip shotATL 117 – 116 BOS · ATL 12% → 86% +75ATL 12% → 86%+75 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML ATL +800 / BOS -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 85.3%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- BOS -847
- ATL +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 105.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −68 | +9 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +306 Elo | BOS 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 87.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 87.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 120.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 109.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−5.5 | Margin | +10.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 117.04th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 106.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.0 | Pace | 100.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 253–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 25 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 9–2 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.