Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints19
- Zach LaVineAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Hawks- Clint CapelaPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists16
- Clint CapelaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–113
- Q410.1shot clock turnover125–113
- Q436.0Dyson Daniels makes 2-foot two point shot125–113
- Q449.1Coby White makes 9-foot two point shot125–111
- Q41:05Zach LaVine defensive rebound123–111
- Q41:09Trae Young misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot123–111
- Q41:22Coby White makes free throw 3 of 3123–111
- Q41:22Coby White makes free throw 2 of 3122–111
- Q41:22Coby White makes free throw 1 of 3121–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Josh Giddey makes 4-foot two point shotCHI 106 – 103 ATL · CHI 54% → 65% +12CHI 54% → 65%+12 pts
- Q45:25Nikola Vucevic makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Coby White assists)CHI 108 – 105 ATL · CHI 54% → 66% +12CHI 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q44:44Clint Capela makes two point shot (Trae Young assists)CHI 108 – 107 ATL · ATL 33% → 45% +13ATL 33% → 45%+13 pts
- Q43:34Zach LaVine makes driving dunkCHI 110 – 107 ATL · CHI 56% → 70% +14CHI 56% → 70%+14 pts
- Q42:54Zach LaVine makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCHI 112 – 107 ATL · CHI 72% → 85% +12CHI 72% → 85%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML CHI +120 / ATL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- CHI +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 119.5 – 122.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | −26 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +8 Elo | ATL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.7 | Points scored | 116.48th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 121.328th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.4 | Margin | −4.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.1 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 115.626th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.1 | Pace | 104.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.