Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints36
- Jayson TatumAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds12
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints23
- Shake MiltonAssists8
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–114
- Q40.0(00:00) [Celtics] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)136–114
- Q41.1shot clock turnover136–114
- Q425.1Noah Clowney makes dunk (Tyrese Martin assists)136–114
- Q428.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound136–112
- Q431.1Keon Johnson blocks Luke Kornet 's 1-foot dunk136–112
- Q436.1Jalen Wilson bad pass (Jordan Walsh steals)136–112
- Q442.0Payton Pritchard bad pass (Jalen Wilson steals)136–112
- Q454.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2136–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:44Cam Thomas makes 29-foot three pointerBOS 39 – 45 BKN · BKN 33% → 40% +7BKN 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q27:09Tyrese Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BOS 41 – 48 BKN · BKN 35% → 43% +7BKN 35% → 43%+7 pts
- Q25:54Payton Pritchard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 48 – 50 BKN · BOS 62% → 69% +7BOS 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q24:31Jaylen Brown makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 53 – 53 BKN · BOS 66% → 73% +7BOS 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q22:55Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 58 – 58 BKN · BOS 65% → 72% +7BOS 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -9.5
- ML BOS -450 / BKN +350
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 68.5%, market 78.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -368
- BKN +368 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.5 – 104.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +11 | −23 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +135 Elo | BOS 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 110.818th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 111.615th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.6 | Margin | −0.817th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 111.716th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 5th of 297–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 29 |
| 2nd of 306–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–0 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.