Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints17
- Ben SimmonsAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints24
- Brandon Boston Jr.Assists10
- Yves MissiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–105
- Q42.1Jalen Wilson enters the game for Nic Claxton107–105
- Q42.1Ben Simmons enters the game for Ziaire Williams107–105
- Q42.1Javonte Green enters the game for Jaylen Nowell107–105
- Q42.1(00:02.5) [Nets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Nets] retain their timeout107–105
- Q42.1Nets Full timeout107–105
- Q42.1Cam Thomas lost ball turnover (Brandon Boston Jr. steals)107–105
- Q42.1Cam Thomas vs. Brandon Boston Jr.107–105
- Q44.0Yves Missi enters the game for Javonte Green107–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:11Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Wilson assists)BKN 98 – 98 NO · BKN 32% → 51% +18BKN 32% → 51%+18 pts
- Q44:38Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 101 – 100 NO · BKN 38% → 57% +20BKN 38% → 57%+20 pts
- Q44:07Brandon Boston Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Brandon Ingram assists)BKN 101 – 103 NO · NO 42% → 63% +21NO 42% → 63%+21 pts
- Q41:15Cameron Johnson makes driving layup (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 103 – 105 NO · BKN 10% → 26% +16BKN 10% → 26%+16 pts
- Q432.2Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 106 – 105 NO · BKN 16% → 69% +53BKN 16% → 69%+53 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML BKN -120 / NO +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2
- BKN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.3 pts
- BKN: Elo 58.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -109
- NO +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 104.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −112 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +59 Elo | BKN 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 107.225th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 117.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −10.327th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 107.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 117.329th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 100.021st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.