Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints23
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–105
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound100–105
- Q40.1Dorian Finney-Smith misses 26-foot three point jumper100–105
- Q43.0Dennis Schroder offensive rebound100–105
- Q44.1Evan Mobley blocks Cameron Johnson 's 9-foot driving floating jump shot100–105
- Q415.1Nets Full timeout100–105
- Q415.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2100–105
- Q415.1Dean Wade enters the game for Darius Garland100–104
- Q415.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Ty Jerome100–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:24Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 96 – 89 CLE · BKN 64% → 81% +17BKN 64% → 81%+17 pts
- Q43:05Darius Garland makes 14-foot pullup jump shotBKN 96 – 95 CLE · CLE 36% → 52% +16CLE 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q41:24Darius Garland makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 98 – 101 CLE · CLE 69% → 86% +18CLE 69% → 86%+18 pts
- Q41:05Cam Thomas makes 11-foot step back jumpshotBKN 100 – 101 CLE · BKN 12% → 31% +19BKN 12% → 31%+19 pts
- Q446.0Ty Jerome makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 100 – 103 CLE · CLE 71% → 91% +21CLE 71% → 91%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML BKN +550 / CLE -900
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 78.7%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -585
- BKN +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 104.0 – 116.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CLE and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +31 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +228 Elo | CLE 78.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 81.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 81.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 124.51st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 111.213th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +13.32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 121.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 108.27th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.0 | Pace | 102.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 9–1 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 7–1 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.