Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints21
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds7
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–136
- Q411.1Moses Moody makes 1-foot driving dunk117–136
- Q418.0Jaylon Tyson out of bounds lost ball turnover115–136
- Q436.0Lindy Waters III makes 1-foot dunk (Brandin Podziemski assists)115–136
- Q440.0Ty Jerome lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)113–136
- Q451.0Gui Santos makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)113–136
- Q459.0Moses Moody defensive rebound110–136
- Q41:00Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Tristan Thompson's layup110–136
- Q41:13Cavaliers defensive team rebound110–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:20Andrew Wiggins makes 21-foot step back jumpshotGS 2 – 2 CLE · GS 37% → 41% +4GS 37% → 41%+4 pts
- Q111:09Isaac Okoro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)GS 2 – 5 CLE · CLE 59% → 65% +6CLE 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q110:06Darius Garland makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 2 – 10 CLE · CLE 69% → 74% +5CLE 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q19:14Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointerGS 2 – 13 CLE · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q16:07Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)GS 7 – 23 CLE · CLE 83% → 87% +4CLE 83% → 87%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML GS +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -0.5
- CLE 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 48.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- GS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.0 – 116.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +25 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +11 Elo | GS 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.1 | Points scored | 123.21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.3 | Points allowed | 110.610th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.9 | Margin | +12.73rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 120.71st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 108.37th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.3 | Pace | 102.010th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–1 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 7–1 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 0–2 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.