Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Quenton JacksonPoints24
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints31
- Fred VanVleetAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–130
- Q46.2shot clock turnover113–130
- Q430.1Moses Brown makes dunk113–130
- Q430.2Moses Brown offensive rebound111–130
- Q430.2Jarace Walker misses driving layup111–130
- Q438.0James Johnson defensive rebound111–130
- Q440.0Cam Whitmore misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot111–130
- Q452.1Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2111–130
- Q452.1Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2110–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:08Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 43 – 42 HOU · IND 32% → 39% +7IND 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q21:45Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)IND 51 – 55 HOU · HOU 65% → 73% +8HOU 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q21:11Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)IND 53 – 58 HOU · HOU 68% → 75% +7HOU 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q38:57Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three pointerIND 62 – 66 HOU · IND 20% → 27% +7IND 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q38:30Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three pointer (Quenton Jackson assists)IND 65 – 68 HOU · IND 22% → 30% +8IND 22% → 30%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML IND +190 / HOU -225
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.1%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -201
- IND +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.5 – 119.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +45 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +140 Elo | HOU 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 113.615th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 105.73rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | +7.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 111.016th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 103.33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.710th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 6–26th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–0 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.