LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints19
- Kris DunnAssists8
- Terance MannRebounds7
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints21
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–111
- Q43.1Dillon Brooks defensive rebound103–111
- Q43.1Jordan Miller misses 26-foot three point jumper103–111
- Q48.1Tari Eason makes 1-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)103–111
- Q412.0Fred VanVleet defensive rebound103–109
- Q412.0Fred VanVleet blocks Jordan Miller 's 3-foot layup103–109
- Q414.0Jordan Miller offensive rebound103–109
- Q415.1Bones Hyland misses 25-foot three point jumper103–109
- Q419.0Jordan Miller offensive rebound103–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:32Norman Powell makes 26-foot three pointer (Nicolas Batum assists)LAC 34 – 30 HOU · LAC 41% → 49% +7LAC 41% → 49%+7 pts
- Q21:15Fred VanVleet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)LAC 56 – 59 HOU · HOU 60% → 68% +8HOU 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q310:13Dillon Brooks makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAC 62 – 67 HOU · HOU 65% → 73% +8HOU 65% → 73%+8 pts
- Q33:28Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jock Landale assists)LAC 74 – 79 HOU · HOU 65% → 74% +10HOU 65% → 74%+10 pts
- Q33:04Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)LAC 77 – 79 HOU · LAC 26% → 35% +10LAC 26% → 35%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML LAC +160 / HOU -190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- LAC +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 105.0 – 109.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −61 | +31 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +104 Elo | HOU 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 111.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 106.53rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 105.43rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 8th of 296–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 29 |
| 6th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.