LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints31
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints45
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–134
- Q40.0(00:00) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)128–134
- Q41.1Jalen Williams makes dunk (Cason Wallace assists)128–134
- Q48.1James Harden lost ball turnover (Luguentz Dort steals)128–132
- Q48.1James Harden vs. Luguentz Dort (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gains possession)128–132
- Q422.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2128–132
- Q422.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2128–131
- Q422.1Amir Coffey shooting foul128–130
- Q442.1Ivica Zubac makes free throw 1 of 1128–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:22Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 99 – 103 OKC · LAC 15% → 24% +9LAC 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q43:26Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 117 – 121 OKC · LAC 7% → 18% +11LAC 7% → 18%+11 pts
- Q43:01Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)LAC 117 – 124 OKC · OKC 83% → 94% +11OKC 83% → 94%+11 pts
- Q42:37Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 120 – 124 OKC · LAC 5% → 15% +11LAC 5% → 15%+11 pts
- Q41:59Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 121 – 127 OKC · OKC 81% → 95% +14OKC 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML LAC +220 / OKC -275
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 66.5%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -235
- LAC +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 112.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | −30 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +119 Elo | OKC 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30108.5 | Points scored | 115.710th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.3 | Points allowed | 102.91st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +12.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.616th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 98.41st of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 104.55th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.