Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints36
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- De'Anthony MeltonRebounds10
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints24
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Luguentz DortRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–116
- Q421.1De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound127–116
- Q425.1Isaiah Joe misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot127–116
- Q433.0De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2127–116
- Q433.0Warriors offensive team rebound126–116
- Q433.0De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2126–116
- Q433.0Ousmane Dieng personal foul126–116
- Q433.0De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound126–116
- Q433.2Andrew Wiggins blocks Ajay Mitchell 's 2-foot driving layup126–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:57De'Anthony Melton makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 55 – 47 OKC · GS 49% → 57% +8GS 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q21:50De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 58 – 49 OKC · GS 52% → 60% +8GS 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q21:09Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 61 – 53 OKC · GS 50% → 58% +9GS 50% → 58%+9 pts
- Q44:46Alex Caruso makes dunkGS 114 – 108 OKC · OKC 12% → 20% +8OKC 12% → 20%+8 pts
- Q44:00Jonathan Kuminga makes alley oop dunk shot (Draymond Green assists)GS 116 – 108 OKC · GS 83% → 90% +8GS 83% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -6.5
- ML GS +215 / OKC -260
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -2.5
- OKC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 60.7%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -228
- GS +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 110.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1640 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | +11 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +76 Elo | OKC 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.7 | Points scored | 115.712th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 100.21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+12.0 | Margin | +15.41st of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 110.218th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 95.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 104.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–3 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.