Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints18
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints27
- Alperen SengunAssists3
- Alperen SengunRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game92–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter92–107
- Q40.2Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound92–107
- Q42.0Amen Thompson blocks Jared Butler 's 19-foot pullup jump shot92–107
- Q414.2shot clock turnover92–107
- Q439.1Marvin Bagley III lost ball turnover (Amen Thompson steals)92–107
- Q446.1Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound92–107
- Q447.0Jae'Sean Tate misses driving floating jump shot92–107
- Q41:01Johnny Davis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)92–107
- Q41:19Amen Thompson makes tip shot89–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:41Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 52 – 57 HOU · WSH 11% → 16% +5WSH 11% → 16%+5 pts
- Q48:51Alexandre Sarr makes two point shotWSH 78 – 84 HOU · WSH 9% → 13% +5WSH 9% → 13%+5 pts
- Q48:06Aaron Holiday makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Green assists)WSH 78 – 86 HOU · HOU 87% → 92% +5HOU 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q47:26Kyle Kuzma makes 1-foot two point shot (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 80 – 86 HOU · WSH 8% → 13% +5WSH 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q47:04Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot driving dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)WSH 80 – 88 HOU · HOU 88% → 92% +5HOU 88% → 92%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML WSH +400 / HOU -600
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9
- HOU 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.2%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -429
- WSH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 122.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1353 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +1 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +254 Elo | HOU 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 81.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 111.817th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.5 | Points allowed | 107.94th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−13.5 | Margin | +3.99th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 110.813th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 107.06th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–2 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.