LA Clippers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints21
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists3
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points28
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–125
- Q44.0Kai Jones defensive rebound104–125
- Q47.1Aaron Holiday misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–125
- Q423.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound104–125
- Q426.2Kobe Brown misses free throw 2 of 2104–125
- Q426.2Kobe Brown makes free throw 1 of 2104–125
- Q426.2Jae'Sean Tate shooting foul103–125
- Q429.0Jae'Sean Tate lost ball turnover (Kobe Brown steals)103–125
- Q429.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound103–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:02Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)LAC 2 – 7 HOU · HOU 67% → 73% +6HOU 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q210:21Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)LAC 26 – 31 HOU · LAC 21% → 27% +6LAC 21% → 27%+6 pts
- Q28:27Kevin Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 30 – 31 HOU · LAC 29% → 36% +7LAC 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q27:14Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)LAC 30 – 37 HOU · HOU 71% → 77% +6HOU 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q26:36Dillon Brooks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)LAC 30 – 40 HOU · HOU 77% → 83% +5HOU 77% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.7% of 394 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML LAC +165 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- LAC +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 105.5 – 110.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | +33 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +120 Elo | HOU 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Points scored | 111.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 106.23rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +5.26th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.319th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 105.23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–2 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.