Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints28
- Alperen SengunAssists11
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints15
- Ayo DosunmuAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game143–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter143–107
- Q414.2shot clock turnover143–107
- Q439.1Jevon Carter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julian Phillips assists)143–107
- Q446.1Jack McVeigh makes 15-foot two point shot143–104
- Q454.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound141–104
- Q456.1Julian Phillips misses 25-foot three point jumper141–104
- Q41:06Torrey Craig defensive rebound141–104
- Q41:10Aaron Holiday misses free throw 2 of 2141–104
- Q41:10Rockets offensive team rebound141–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:56Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 16 – 16 CHI · HOU 55% → 62% +7HOU 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q13:29Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)HOU 22 – 21 CHI · CHI 30% → 37% +6CHI 30% → 37%+6 pts
- Q12:45Coby White makes 25-foot three pointer (Josh Giddey assists)HOU 24 – 24 CHI · CHI 32% → 39% +6CHI 32% → 39%+6 pts
- Q28:58Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)HOU 34 – 33 CHI · CHI 30% → 37% +7CHI 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q27:01Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 42 – 36 CHI · HOU 67% → 74% +7HOU 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -185 / CHI +155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- CHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.5 – 115.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −16 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +108 Elo | HOU 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 116.28th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 122.229th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 109.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.6 | Defense rating | 114.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.6 | Pace | 106.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.