Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints36
- Ty JeromeAssists6
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Patrick WilliamsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–113
- Q43.0Dean Wade defensive rebound119–113
- Q46.1Coby White misses 26-foot three point shot119–113
- Q417.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2119–113
- Q417.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Georges Niang118–113
- Q417.1Dean Wade enters the game for Darius Garland118–113
- Q417.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2118–113
- Q417.1Zach LaVine personal take foul117–113
- Q417.1Georges Niang enters the game for Isaac Okoro117–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:24Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 82 – 85 CHI · CLE 43% → 54% +11CLE 43% → 54%+11 pts
- Q47:28Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 105 – 99 CHI · CLE 74% → 85% +11CLE 74% → 85%+11 pts
- Q45:06Zach LaVine makes 17-foot two point shotCLE 106 – 106 CHI · CHI 30% → 42% +12CHI 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q44:49Evan Mobley makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 108 – 106 CHI · CLE 58% → 70% +12CLE 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q43:23Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 115 – 108 CHI · CLE 83% → 94% +11CLE 83% → 94%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML CLE -340 / CHI +270
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5.5
- CLE 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 71.0%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 123.0 – 114.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −31 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +155 Elo | CLE 71.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 75.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 75.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 114.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+12.5 | Margin | −5.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 108.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 113.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.8 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 1st of 305–0 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–2 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–1 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.