Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints29
- Patrick WilliamsAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints37
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–144
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–144
- Q41.1Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot dunk (Caris LeVert assists)126–144
- Q47.1Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)126–142
- Q415.1Donovan Mitchell makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshot123–142
- Q421.1Chris Duarte makes driving layup123–139
- Q428.0Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Donovan Mitchell assists)121–139
- Q434.1Dalen Terry bad pass (Donovan Mitchell steals)121–136
- Q446.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1121–136
- Q446.1E.J. Liddell enters the game for Patrick Williams121–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:23Coby White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 90 – 89 CLE · CHI 25% → 34% +9CHI 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q34:47Darius Garland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CHI 90 – 92 CLE · CLE 65% → 74% +9CLE 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q411:34Coby White makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotCHI 105 – 107 CLE · CHI 18% → 27% +9CHI 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q411:20Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 105 – 110 CLE · CLE 73% → 82% +10CLE 73% → 82%+10 pts
- Q411:02Patrick Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Smith assists)CHI 108 – 110 CLE · CHI 18% → 27% +10CHI 18% → 27%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CHI +360 / CLE -475
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 75.5%, market 79.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -380
- CHI +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +16 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +195 Elo | CLE 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 79.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 121.81st of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.0 | Margin | +11.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.9 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 108.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 9th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.