Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Donovan MitchellAssists9
- Donovan MitchellRebounds13
76ers- Jared McCainPoints34
- Jared McCainAssists10
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q413.0Jarrett Allen defensive rebound114–106
- Q413.0Reggie Jackson misses 23-foot three point jumper114–106
- Q415.0Guerschon Yabusele offensive rebound114–106
- Q419.1Jared McCain misses running pullup jump shot114–106
- Q422.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound114–106
- Q425.1Donovan Mitchell misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–106
- Q434.1Jared McCain personal take foul114–106
- Q448.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes driving dunk (Jared McCain assists)114–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:13Isaac Okoro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 55 – 59 PHI · CLE 53% → 62% +9CLE 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q46:36Ty Jerome makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 98 – 93 PHI · CLE 74% → 85% +12CLE 74% → 85%+12 pts
- Q45:33Jared McCain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)CLE 98 – 96 PHI · PHI 14% → 27% +13PHI 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q45:16Evan Mobley makes layup (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 100 – 96 PHI · CLE 73% → 83% +9CLE 73% → 83%+9 pts
- Q42:52Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CLE 106 – 100 PHI · CLE 81% → 93% +13CLE 81% → 93%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -11.5
- ML CLE -625 / PHI +450
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 85.2%, market 82.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -474
- PHI +474 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 115.0 – 103.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +40 | −131 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +305 Elo | CLE 85.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 82.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 83.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 82.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.4 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 114.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+12.0 | Margin | −8.025th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 105.527th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 113.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 306–0 | Road vs home | 1–428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−131 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–3 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.