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New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast

FinalNBA Cup - Group Play

Away

Knicks

5-5

111–99

at

Home

76ers

2-8

NY 59%PHI 41%

You didn't pick this one.

Xfinity Mobile Arena · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.

PHI favored NY favored112 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4PHI50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
76ers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game111–99
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
  • Q42.0OG Anunoby defensive rebound111–99
  • Q42.0Ricky Council IV misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–99
  • Q411.1Jalen Brunson makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot111–99
  • Q422.1Caleb Martin makes driving layup (Ricky Council IV assists)109–99
  • Q436.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2109–97
  • Q436.1Jericho Sims enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns108–97
  • Q436.1Adem Bona enters the game for Andre Drummond108–97
  • Q436.1Ricky Council IV enters the game for Paul George108–97

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q310:09Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)NY 56 – 57 PHI · PHI 38% → 47% +9
  2. Q39:14OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 61 – 57 PHI · NY 59% → 68% +9
  3. Q38:59Joel Embiid makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)NY 61 – 60 PHI · PHI 32% → 41% +9
  4. Q36:32Caleb Martin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)NY 68 – 63 PHI · PHI 21% → 29% +8
  5. Q49:47Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)NY 83 – 75 PHI · NY 75% → 85% +10

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 59%

LeanHit
NY 59%PHI 41%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
NY -3.5
ML NY -155 / PHI +135
Pre-line forecast
NY 52%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
Pick ’em
NY 51%
Ratings vs. market
−8.3 pts
NY: Elo 50.6%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
NY -143
PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 108.0 – 104.5 PHI
Posted spread, posted total 212.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYPHIWhy
Team rating15411469Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+8+40NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +4 EloNY 50.6%
Market-implied ratingsNY 51.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 51.5%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatPHI
14th of 30114.4Points scored107.027th of 30
13th of 30111.2Points allowed114.619th of 30
10th of 30+3.2Margin−7.626th of 30
2nd of 30118.4Offense rating106.226th of 30
23rd of 30115.1Defense rating113.720th of 30
30th of 3096.6Pace98.526th of 30
17th of 302–4Road vs home1–324th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+8 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

76ers

+40 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Knicks76ers
13501450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYPHI
Against the spread4–52–7
Last 104–52–7
Favorite4–40–3
Underdog0–12–4
Overs–unders5–45–4
Overs–unders, last 105–45–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 7–3 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.