Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints31
- Zach LaVineAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints46
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–123
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound124–123
- Q40.1Jalen Brunson misses 15-foot two point shot124–123
- Q43.0Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Josh Giddey124–123
- Q43.0Knicks Full timeout124–123
- Q43.0Coby White makes free throw 3 of 3124–123
- Q43.0Coby White makes free throw 2 of 3123–123
- Q43.0Coby White makes free throw 1 of 3122–123
- Q43.0Josh Hart shooting foul121–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layup (Jalen Brunson assists)CHI 119 – 119 NY · NY 29% → 54% +26NY 29% → 54%+26 pts
- Q437.1Jalen Brunson makes 20-foot step back jumpshotCHI 119 – 121 NY · NY 53% → 84% +31NY 53% → 84%+31 pts
- Q44.1Jalen Brunson makes driving layupCHI 121 – 123 NY · NY 51% → >99% +49NY 51% → >99%+49 pts
- Q43.0Coby White makes free throw 2 of 3CHI 123 – 123 NY · CHI 5% → 49% +44CHI 5% → 49%+44 pts
- Q43.0Coby White makes free throw 3 of 3CHI 124 – 123 NY · CHI 49% → 94% +45CHI 49% → 94%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML CHI +280 / NY -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NY: Elo 67.8%, market 74.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -297
- CHI +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 112.0 – 120.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | +13 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +129 Elo | NY 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 76.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 75.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 114.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 110.07th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.5 | Margin | +4.17th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 117.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.421st of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Pace | 96.930th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.