Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints26
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Tari EasonRebounds14
Bucks- Brook LopezPoints27
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–101
- Q42.0Rockets Full timeout100–101
- Q42.0Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul100–101
- Q43.2Jabari Smith Jr. enters the game for Amen Thompson100–101
- Q43.2Taurean Prince enters the game for Brook Lopez100–101
- Q43.2Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Damian Lillard100–101
- Q43.2Rockets Full timeout100–101
- Q43.2Damian Lillard makes driving layup100–101
- Q415.2Brook Lopez defensive rebound100–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:39Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 88 – 83 MIL · HOU 54% → 67% +13HOU 54% → 67%+13 pts
- Q48:31Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 91 – 85 MIL · HOU 61% → 74% +13HOU 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q48:15Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)HOU 91 – 88 MIL · MIL 26% → 39% +13MIL 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q41:17AJ Green makes 28-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)HOU 100 – 99 MIL · MIL 11% → 39% +28MIL 11% → 39%+28 pts
- Q43.2Damian Lillard makes driving layupHOU 100 – 101 MIL · MIL 6% → 94% +88MIL 6% → 94%+88 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML HOU +135 / MIL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- MIL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 40.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- HOU +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.5 – 114.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | −13 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +64 Elo | HOU 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 111.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 113.618th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.5 | Margin | −2.419th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.6 | Defense rating | 112.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 4–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–4 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.