Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Taurean PrincePoints23
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists12
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–115
- Q40.0Hornets defensive team rebound114–115
- Q42.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 18-foot step back jumpshot114–115
- Q46.1Josh Green personal foul114–115
- Q47.1Bobby Portis enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.114–115
- Q47.1Pat Connaughton enters the game for Delon Wright114–115
- Q47.1Brook Lopez enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.114–115
- Q47.1Cody Martin enters the game for Tre Mann114–115
- Q47.1Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball114–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:08Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)MIL 107 – 110 CHA · CHA 48% → 75% +28CHA 48% → 75%+28 pts
- Q450.1Pat Connaughton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 112 – 113 CHA · MIL 6% → 36% +30MIL 6% → 36%+30 pts
- Q419.0Pat Connaughton makes driving layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 114 – 113 CHA · MIL 27% → 75% +48MIL 27% → 75%+48 pts
- Q47.1LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2MIL 114 – 114 CHA · CHA 14% → 49% +35CHA 14% → 49%+35 pts
- Q47.1LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2MIL 114 – 115 CHA · CHA 49% → 85% +36CHA 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -3.5
- ML MIL -170 / CHA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1
- MIL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 47.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- CHA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.0 – 108.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −5 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +21 Elo | CHA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 107.625th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 112.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −5.023rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 106.026th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 110.913th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.515th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 2–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–0 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.