Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints24
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds9
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–129
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound117–129
- Q41.1Corey Kispert misses 26-foot three point jumper117–129
- Q43.0Zaccharie Risacher out of bounds bad pass turnover117–129
- Q43.1Kyshawn George makes 1-foot layup (Bilal Coulibaly assists)117–129
- Q46.0Zaccharie Risacher kicked ball violation115–129
- Q46.1Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Trae Young115–129
- Q46.1Wizards Full timeout115–129
- Q46.1Trae Young traveling115–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:49Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)WSH 28 – 18 ATL · WSH 39% → 46% +7WSH 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q11:58De'Andre Hunter makes 22-foot three point shot (Jalen Johnson assists)WSH 34 – 27 ATL · ATL 52% → 59% +7ATL 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q10.1Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 39 – 29 ATL · WSH 42% → 49% +7WSH 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q210:16Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)WSH 39 – 34 ATL · ATL 55% → 62% +7ATL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q29:47Jalen Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)WSH 39 – 37 ATL · ATL 62% → 69% +7ATL 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML WSH +310 / ATL -400
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 74.3%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -328
- WSH +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 116.0 – 125.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | −20 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +184 Elo | ATL 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.2 | Points scored | 116.29th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.4 | Points allowed | 121.229th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.2 | Margin | −5.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 110.916th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 115.727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Pace | 104.74th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 4–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.