Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints42
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints50
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Harrison BarnesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–139
- Q44.2Jordan Poole bad pass (Devin Vassell steals)130–139
- Q410.1Wizards Full timeout130–139
- Q410.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2130–139
- Q410.1Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2130–138
- Q410.1(00:10.8) [Wizards] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Wizards] charged with a timeout130–137
- Q410.1Wizards Full timeout130–137
- Q410.1Jordan Poole personal foul130–137
- Q412.1Jordan Poole out of bounds bad pass turnover130–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:42Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 70 – 67 SA · WSH 29% → 37% +8WSH 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q311:25Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)WSH 70 – 70 SA · SA 63% → 71% +8SA 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:56Carlton Carrington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 75 – 72 SA · WSH 30% → 38% +8WSH 30% → 38%+8 pts
- Q39:24Victor Wembanyama makes 28-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)WSH 75 – 75 SA · SA 62% → 70% +9SA 62% → 70%+9 pts
- Q36:35Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)WSH 85 – 88 SA · SA 69% → 77% +8SA 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- SA -9.5
- ML WSH +350 / SA -460
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -8
- SA 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- SA: Elo 78.1%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- SA -370
- WSH +370 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 107.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +23 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +221 Elo | SA 78.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 77.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30108.0 | Points scored | 107.226th of 30 |
| 30th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 107.34th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.7 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 30th of 30102.9 | Offense rating | 108.421st of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 108.58th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.7 | Pace | 98.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.