Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–116
- Q413.1Jordan McLaughlin bad pass (Charles Bassey steals)96–116
- Q426.1Charles Bassey makes 5-foot two point shot96–116
- Q440.1Colby Jones steps out of bounds turnover96–114
- Q452.1Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Harrison Barnes96–114
- Q452.1Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Chris Paul96–114
- Q452.1Blake Wesley enters the game for Victor Wembanyama96–114
- Q452.1Charles Bassey enters the game for Keldon Johnson96–114
- Q452.1Victor Wembanyama personal take foul96–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:24Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point shot (Devin Vassell assists)SAC 48 – 50 SA · SA 42% → 50% +8SA 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q22:54Doug McDermott makes 22-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 51 – 50 SA · SAC 50% → 58% +8SAC 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q20.0Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 55 – 60 SA · SA 51% → 60% +9SA 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q310:38Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SAC 59 – 65 SA · SA 54% → 63% +9SA 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q310:12Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SAC 61 – 68 SA · SA 57% → 66% +9SA 57% → 66%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML SAC -145 / SA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SAC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- SAC: Elo 48.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -133
- SA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 109.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +33 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +13 Elo | SA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 106.328th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 108.45th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −2.118th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 107.324th of 30 |
| 10th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 109.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–0 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.