Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints34
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Keegan MurrayRebounds14
Suns- Bradley BealPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists12
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–118
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–118
- OT17.0shot clock turnover127–118
- OT45.1De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound127–118
- OT47.0Grayson Allen misses 25-foot three point jumper127–118
- OT47.0Mason Plumlee enters the game for Josh Okogie127–118
- OT47.0Suns Full timeout127–118
- OT47.1De'Aaron Fox makes 20-foot pullup jump shot127–118
- OT1:03Josh Okogie enters the game for Tyus Jones125–118
- OT1:03Kings defensive team rebound125–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:51Bradley Beal makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Mason Plumlee assists)SAC 104 – 107 PHX · PHX 60% → 79% +18PHX 60% → 79%+18 pts
- Q41:39De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot step back jumpshotSAC 106 – 107 PHX · SAC 20% → 39% +19SAC 20% → 39%+19 pts
- Q438.0DeMar DeRozan makes 8-foot two point shotSAC 109 – 110 PHX · SAC 9% → 33% +24SAC 9% → 33%+24 pts
- Q44.0Keegan Murray makes tip shotSAC 111 – 110 PHX · SAC 8% → 92% +84SAC 8% → 92%+84 pts
- Q43.2Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 1SAC 111 – 111 PHX · PHX 6% → 50% +44PHX 6% → 50%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML SAC -115 / PHX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SAC: Elo 49.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -104
- PHX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 115.5 – 114.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | −53 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +6 Elo | PHX 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 114.413th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 111.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 114.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 110.814th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 PHX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.