Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists12
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.1Luka Doncic misses 37-foot three point jumper114–113
- Q40.1Grayson Allen enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic114–113
- Q40.1Kyrie Irving enters the game for Naji Marshall114–113
- Q40.1Mavericks Full timeout114–113
- Q40.1Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2114–113
- Q40.1Suns offensive team rebound113–113
- Q40.1Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 1 of 2113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:35Royce O'Neale makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 109 – 109 DAL · PHX 24% → 48% +25PHX 24% → 48%+25 pts
- Q458.1Jusuf Nurkic makes layup (Devin Booker assists)PHX 111 – 111 DAL · PHX 22% → 49% +27PHX 22% → 49%+27 pts
- Q431.1Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot dunkPHX 113 – 111 DAL · PHX 49% → 84% +34PHX 49% → 84%+34 pts
- Q423.1Daniel Gafford makes alley oop dunk shot (Luka Doncic assists)PHX 113 – 113 DAL · DAL 13% → 51% +38DAL 13% → 51%+38 pts
- Q40.1Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 114 – 113 DAL · PHX 50% → 100% +50PHX 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -2.5
- ML PHX +125 / DAL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 60.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -135
- PHX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.0 – 117.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +4 | PHX: Usual rotation · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +77 Elo | DAL 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.517th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 108.17th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +5.47th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 106.65th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 101.612th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–2 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.